000
AXPZ20 KNHC 291541
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Mon Apr 29 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1500 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N90W to 08N100W. The
ITCZ extends from 08N100W to 07N110W to 08N120W, and from 06N130W
to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
active from 05N to 10N between 96W and 102W, and within 90 nm
either side of the ITCZ between 105W and 115W. Scattered moderate
convection is active within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between
120W and 125W, and west of 130W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
A ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered near 35N140W
southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is
supporting strong to gale force winds north of the region off
southern California, and associated northwest swell is
propagating southward into the waters of Baja California Norte. Recent
ship observations and scatterometer satellite data shows
moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California. Concurrent
altimeter satellite passes indicated combined seas of 5 to 7 ft
off Baja California, although higher waves to 8 or 9 ft may
linger northwest of Guadalupe Island with NW swell. Gentle to
moderate winds are noted elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters,
with 4 to 6 ft seas primarily in NW swell.
For the forecast, the moderate to fresh NW winds along with
large NW swell will persist off Baja California Norte mainly west
of Guadalupe Island through mid week. Moderate to fresh SW winds
may pulse across the northern Gulf of California Tue night,
following a dissipating cold front moving through the region.
Elsewhere, mostly gentle to moderate winds will persist across
Mexican offshore waters along with moderate combined seas
primarily in NW swell in open waters. Looking ahead, winds and
seas will diminish off Baja California Fri and Sat as the high
pressure north of the area weakens.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
The scattered thunderstorms that have been active off Panama and
Costa Rica for the past couple of days are now centered beyond
180 nm offshore where moderate to fresh SW winds are converging
toward the monsoon trough. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes
persist elsewhere across all of the offshore waters zones, with 3
to 5 ft combined seas primarily in SW swell.
For the forecast, a weaker than normal pressure pattern is
expected to persist across the southwest Caribbean through late
week, leading to gentle to moderate winds across the area Pacific
waters. Moderate seas in S to SW swell will prevail through Mon
before new S swell raises seas slightly across the regional
waters Mon night and Tue. Looking ahead, reinforcing S swell is
expected across the region Wed night through Fri night.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
A broad ridge extends from 1031 mb high pressure centered north
of the area near 35N140W to the southeast toward the
Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting a large area
of fresh trade winds south of 20N and into the tropical Pacific
west of 120W, as noted by recent satellite scatterometer data.
These winds in turn are supporting 8 to 9 ft combined seas in
the same area, as measured with recent satellite altimeter data.
Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere.
The convergent trade wind flow is supporting clusters of showers
and thunderstorms near the ITCZ, generally from 06N to 10N
between 108W and 128W.
For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will begin
to drift NE through mid week. This pressure pattern will
maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds from the ITCZ to
20N, and west of 125W through Tue. Seas there will remain in the
8 to 9 ft range. Moderate N to NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft
are expected north of 25N through Tue, with northerly swell east
of 125W to include offshore of Baja California Norte persisting
to 8 to 12 ft through Wed, and gradually spreading westward to
130W. Looking ahead, the high pressure will weaken late in the
week ahead of a cold front moving eastward well to the north of
the region. This will allow trade winds to diminish through late
Fri, although combined seas to 8 ft may linger over the tropical
Pacific west of 135W.
$$
Christensen
