927 
AXNT20 KNHC 041805
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1805 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
1740 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

HEAVY RAINFALL IN HISPANIOLA, IN JAMAICA, AND IN EASTERN CUBA:

A persistent western Caribbean Sea upper level trough will
continue to support the significant rainshowers through Friday.
The threats to land are: dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and 
gusty winds, through Friday. It is possible that heavy rain may
lead to flash flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of 
Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from earlier recent
heavy rain events. Global models show that this afternoon and
Thursday afternoon will be the days with the most significant 
precipitation, in the north central Dominican Republic and in the  
northeastern part of Haiti. It is possible also that significant 
rainfall may reach eastern Cuba, and the Cayman Islands, where 
abundant moisture will be present. Please, refer to bulletins and
forecasts that are from your local weather bureau office for more
detailed information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 26W, from 11N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. Any close precipitation is related
to the monsoon trough or to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, from 11N southward,
moving westward about 10 knots. Any close precipitation is related
to the ITCZ.

An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 13N southward, 
moving westward about 10 knots. Any close precipitation is related
to the ITCZ.

The earlier central Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was close to 
72W, at 04/0600 UTC, was eliminated from the map analysis. Most of
the moisture that was accompanying this feature is outside the
Caribbean Sea at this time.

The earlier western Caribbean Sea tropical wave that was close to
85W/86W, at 04/0600 UTC, was eliminated from the map analysis.
This wave has become caught up in the nearby NE-to-SW oriented 
upper level trough.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-
Bissau close to 11N15W, to 08N19W, to 06N25W. The ITCZ is along
04N/05N between 27W and 36W. Precipitation: scattered strong is
from 05N to 08N between 17W and 21W. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is elsewhere within 90 nm on either side of the
rest of the line 08N14W 05N23W 05N30W 05N36W 06N43W 06N49W 08N54W
14N62W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A broad surface ridge extends from an Atlantic Ocean 1017 mb
32N74W high pressure center, to the coastal waters of the U.S.A.
Gulf coast states. Moderate seas are in the western half of the 
area. The sea heights range from 6 feet to 7 feet in the Texas 
coastal waters. Slight seas are in the rest of the Gulf of Mexico.
Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from 90W westward. 
Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the Gulf of 
Mexico. 

A weak Atlantic ridge extends SW into the NE Gulf, and will 
dominate the basin through the next several days. This pattern 
will support generally moderate to fresh SE to S winds in the 
western Gulf, fresh to occasionally strong near the Yucatan 
Peninsula and in the NW Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds in the 
eastern Gulf through late Wed. By Thu, the ridge will weaken, 
allowing for winds to diminish somewhat. Hazy conditions due to 
agricultural fires over Central America and Mexico will continue 
for the next couple of days, reducing visibility to around 3 nm at
times, mainly over the western half of the Gulf. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for information about
the heavy rainfall event in Hispaniola, in Jamaica, and in the
eastern sections of Cuba.  

Cyclonic wind flow is covering much of the northern half of the
area, with a persistent and deep layer trough. A surface trough
currently is in the Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered to
numerous strong is in the Windward Passage. Scattered moderate to
isolated strong is from 14N to Jamaica between 75W and 79W, and in
the eastern half of the Dominican Republic.

Mostly fresh to some strong SE winds are from the Windward Passage
eastward. Moderate or slower winds are in the remainder of the
Caribbean Sea. Mostly moderate to slightly rough seas are between
64W and 73W. Mostly moderate to some slight seas are in the
remainder of the Caribbean Sea.

The 24-hour rainfall totals in inches, for the period that ended 
at 04/1200 UTC, are: 1.47 in Guadeloupe; 0.31 in San Juan in 
Puerto Rico; 0.29 in Trinidad; 0.15 in Montego Bay in Jamaica; and
0.04 in Tegucigalpa in Honduras. This information is from the Pan
American Temperature and Precipitation Tables/MIATPTPAN.

The monsoon trough is along 12N/13N, from 75W off the coast of
Colombia, beyond Nicaragua, and into the Pacific Ocean.
Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 150 nm to 
the south of the monsoon trough between 75W and 79W; and from 06N
to 09N between 78W and 80W to the south of Panama. Other isolated
moderate to locally strong is elsewhere from 14N southward from 
70W westward.

Weak high pressure extends across the western Atlantic along 
31N-32N. The associated pressure gradient across the region will 
support fresh winds across the east-central Caribbean this 
morning, with seas to near 8 ft. Winds and seas will then diminish
modestly through Wed night. A deep layered upper- level trough 
from the W Atlantic to the W Caribbean will continue to support 
active thunderstorms across north-central portions through today. 
As this feature moves E-NE across the Atlantic, associated weather
will shift across the NE Caribbean this evening through Thu. 
Fresh trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin 
Thu evening through early Sat. 

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front passes through 31N39W, to 26N48W. A surface trough
continues, from 26N48W, to a 1013 mb low pressure center that is
near 28N63W. The surface trough continues from the 1013 mb low
pressure center, to the Windward Passage. Precipitation: scattered
strong is within 480 nm to the southwest of the 1013 mb low 
pressure center. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is
elsewhere from 10N to 21N between 60W and 63W, and from 20N
northward between 50W and 70W.

Mostly moderate seas cover the entire area in general. The 
comparatively highest sea heights, range from 4 feet to 6 feet.
Some smaller areas of sea heights of 4 feet or less are mixed
into the areas of predominantly moderate seas. Fresh NE winds are
to the southeast of 31N16W 23N19W 21N30W 20N40W 19N60W. Fresh to
strong southerly winds are between 60W and 70W, to the south of
the 28N60W 25N70W-Windward Passage surface trough. Moderate or
slower winds are in the remainder of the Atlantic Ocean.

A frontal trough extends from 27N55W to 1013 mb low pres near 
28.5N62.5W to the SE Bahamas. A deep-layered upper trough across 
the W Atlantic and into the W Caribbean will shift E-NE across the
region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms between 55W
and 70W, that will shift E and NE through Thu. The upper trough 
is expected to aid in strengthening of the low pressure, which 
will move NE and exit the area waters Wed morning. Strong to near 
gale-force SW winds are expected ahead of this low pres this 
afternoon and evening as it moves across the NE waters. Weak high 
pressure will begin to build across the basin Wed then shift 
slowly E-NE Thu through Fri night. A weak front may drop into the 
NW waters Sat. 

$$
mt/ss