386 
AXNT20 KNHC 172311
TWDAT 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sat May 18 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2300 UTC.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Sierra Leone 
near 09N13W to 05N21W. The ITCZ continues from 05N21W to the Equator 
along 40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-08N 
between 16W-48W.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A cold front extends from a Louisiana 1007 mb low pressure center to 
the Texas-Mexico border. A NW-to-SE oriented surface trough is from 
a 1000 mb low pressure center,at 21N95W to NE Honduras.
Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over the western Gulf north 
of 26N and west of 91W. Winds are SE fresh to strong in the SE Gulf 
of Mexico with seas 6-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker 
with seas 4-6 ft. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires 
are covering most of the western half of the Gulf of Mexico 
including in the coastal plains of Mexico. 

For the forecast, the front will shift eastward across the northern 
Gulf through early Sun, then stall and weaken gradually through Mon. 
Upper-level disturbances moving from W to E will maintain active 
weather over the northern Gulf through most of the weekend. 
Elsewhere, moderate to fresh return flow will dominate the basin, 
except pulsing to locally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and the 
Bay of Campeche through Sat night. Winds will slightly weaken Sun 
into early next week as the pressure gradient relaxes. Meanwhile, 
areas of haze and smoke due to agricultural fires in Mexico continue 
across most of the western Gulf and Bay of Campeche. 

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

A surface trough across N Central America is helping to force fresh 
to strong SE winds over the NW Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, a weak 
pressure gradient is producing only moderate or weaker trades. Seas 
are 6-8 ft over the NW Caribbean and 4-6 ft elsewhere. No 
significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean Sea 
today. Areas of haze and smoke from agricultural fires are covering 
the NW Caribbean Sea including the Gulf of Honduras. 

For the forecast, strong winds in the Gulf of Honduras will persist 
through Sun, reaching near gale-force this evening into Sat morning 
and again Sat night. Fresh to strong winds will pulse at night in 
the Gulf of Venezuela and offshore Colombia through Sun night. 
Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through early next 
week. High pressure from the eastern Atlantic will ridge westward 
Wed and Wed night while strengthening some. A tightening gradient 
between the ridge and relatively lower pressure in the southwestern 
Caribbean is expected to lead to increasing trade winds over most of 
the central and eastern Caribbean at that same time. Meanwhile, 
rather dense smoke due to agricultural fires in Central America 
continues across areas of the northwestern Caribbean, and is 
reducing the visibility in the Gulf of Honduras.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A weak cold extends from 31N63W southwestward to the coast of 
Florida near 27N80W. North of 27N east of the front to 60W, winds 
are SW fresh with seas 5-7 ft. Scattered showers are occurring from 
26N-31N west of 75W. Ridging north of the area along with low 
pressure along the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing NE to E moderate 
to locally fresh trades south of 20N west of 25W. Seas in this area 
are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas 3-5 ft. 

For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move slowly 
eastward, and shift east of 55W early Mon. Active weather is 
expected to continue ahead of the front through Sun. Fresh southerly 
winds ahead of the front will continue through Fri afternoon, then 
become moderate Fri night through Sat afternoon, then diminish 
further. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are 
expected through Sun night as weak high pressure extends E to W 
roughly along 24N-25N. A new front will sink southward into the 
waters offshore of Georgia and NE Florida early Mon and move 
southeastward and weaken through late Tue. A residual trough may 
linger from near 30N71W to the central Bahamas Wed and Wed night. 

$$
CWL/JA