000
AXPZ20 KNHC 111535
TWDEP

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Sat May 11 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1525 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to a 1010 low pres near
10N98W and to 06N121W. The ITCZ continues from 06N121W to beyond
06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is
observed north of 02N and east of 90W. Similar convection is also
present from 06N to 13N and between 95W and 106W, and from 03N 
to 08N and between 113W to 137W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

A 1026 mb high pressure system centered well NW of the area 
extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure 
gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in NW Mexico and 
southern California result in moderate to locally fresh NW winds
in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters 
are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, including the Gulfs of California and 
Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas 
prevail.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will 
prevail off the Baja California waters through the middle of next
week. Northwest swell will maintain seas to near 7 ft today 
before gradually subsiding to 6 ft or less through early next 
week. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are 
expected elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico 
through the middle of next week. 

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

A weak pressure pattern across the region result in gentle to 
moderate winds south of the monsoon trough and light to gentle 
winds north of the monsoon trough. Southerly swell is producing
seas in the 5-7 ft range between Colombia and the Galapagos 
Islands, with seas of 3-5 ft elsewhere. 

For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SW winds are expected 
south of the monsoon trough through the middle of next week. 
Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will support 
seas of 6 to 7 ft S of the Galapagos Islands through Sun. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds will prevail with moderate seas 
of 6 ft or less. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

A 1026 mb high pressure system located near 41N143W continues to
dominate the the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The 
pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower 
pressures in the deep tropics result in generally moderate 
easterly winds from 07N to 23N and west of 115W. Seas in these 
waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft 
are found south of the monsoon trough and between 96W and 121W. 
Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail.

For the forecast, moderate trade winds, and moderate seas are 
expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ to near 20N and W 
of 120W through Sun, before seas subside slightly through early 
next week. 

$$
Delgado