000
AXPZ20 KNHC 141449
TWDEP 

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1605 UTC Tue May 14 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
1430 UTC.

...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...

The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N79W to 10N94W to
07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to 07N130W to 07N140W. 
Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 01N to 
09N between 77W and 84W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong 
convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 84W and 90W, from 
04N to 14N between 92W and 100W, from 04N to 07N between 103W and
113W, and from 07N to 11N between 124W and 140W.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...

Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the waters off the Baja
California peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo 
Islands. Decaying gentle to moderate gap winds are observed in 
the northern and central Gulf of California with light to gentle
winds over the southern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are 
elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 
ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the
Gulf of California.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds, pulsing to locally
fresh each night, and moderate seas or less, will persist off
the Baja California waters through this week and into the
upcoming weekend. Pulsing of moderate to locally fresh gap winds
will push through the mountain passages of Baja California into
the Gulf of California at night through much of the week. Gentle
to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected
elsewhere across the open offshore waters of Mexico through late
this week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of 
the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid to late week and move west-
northwestward. This may increase the winds and seas in the 
offshore waters S and SW of Tehuantepec into the upcoming 
weekend.

...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, 
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...

Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from western
Colombia offshore to 84W, including the Gulf of Panama and waters
S of Costa Rica. This convection may result in higher winds and
seas and dangerous boating conditions.

Gentle to moderate winds are over the waters S of the monsoon
trough, with light to gentle winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas
are in the 4-6 ft range.

For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast
south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of
the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell
moving through the regional waters will support seas of 5-6 ft 
through the forecast period. An area of low pressure is forecast 
to form south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid to late week and 
move west-northwestward. This may increase the winds and seas in
the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador toward the end 
of the week and into the upcoming weekend. 

...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...

High pressure prevails N of 20N. The pressure gradient between
the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of
the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh tradewinds N of the 
ITCZ to near 20N and W of 120W. Seas in this area are in the 5-8
ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere N of 
the ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range,
except to 7 ft near 30N140W. Gentle to locally moderate winds 
are S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough where seas are in the 5-7 ft 
range.

For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and 
moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone N of the ITCZ 
to near 20N and W of 120W through the forecast period. Seas may
build to 7-9 ft over the west-central waters this weekend due to
an expanding area of fresh winds. An area of low pressure is 
forecast to develop south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec by mid to 
late week and move west-northwestward. This may increase winds 
and seas in the eastern part of the basin toward the end of the 
week into the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, a set of northerly
swell may approach 30N later in the weekend, building seas to 7-9
ft N of 28N.

$$
Lewitsky