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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 19
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
1100 PM HST Fri Aug 04 2023
There is a hint of Dora's eye clearing once again this evening.
Since the last advisory, geostationary satellite imagery has shown
deep and persistent bursts of convection near the estimated center.
A couple of satellite microwave passes from 0241 and 0253 UTC showed
an eye open to the north. Subjective analyses from TAFB and SAB
both gave a T5.0/90 kt, however given recent satellite trends, the
initial intensity is set at 95 kt for this advisory.
The hurricane is moving westward at 16 kt along the southern
periphery of a ridge to its north. This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a faster forward speed while it passes
well south of Hawaii early next week. The track guidance is still
well-clustered and the latest official track forecast is largely
unchanged.
Unlike the track model guidance, there is quite a bit of spread in
the intensity guidance. Thus, there is lower-than-normal confidence
in this prediction. Global models suggest the moderate deep-layer
vertical wind shear should decrease within 24 h, but there may
be some mid-layer shear caused by the building ridge that could
weaken Dora in a couple days. Sea surface temperatures along the
forecast track remain relatively conducive (26-27 degrees C), but
the environmental moisture gradually decreases. The latest NHC
intensity forecast is similar to the previous advisory and overall
shows some gradual weakening. However, slight fluctuations
in intensity are possible through much of the forecast period.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 05/0900Z 13.5N 131.6W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 05/1800Z 13.3N 134.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/0600Z 13.2N 137.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 06/1800Z 12.9N 140.8W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/0600Z 12.7N 144.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
60H 07/1800Z 12.6N 148.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
72H 08/0600Z 12.5N 152.3W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 09/0600Z 12.5N 160.2W 80 KT 90 MPH
120H 10/0600Z 13.3N 167.7W 75 KT 85 MPH
$$
Forecaster Bucci
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