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Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 27
NWS Central Pacific Hurricane Center Honolulu HI EP052023
500 PM HST Sun Aug 06 2023
Dora remains a well-organized, compact and symmetric hurricane,
moving west in the central Pacific. A blend of the subjective dvorak
estimates from PHFO, SAB and JTWC combined with the objective
estimates lends an initial intensity remaining at 120 kt. A partial
SAR pass this morning showed winds on the northeast side near 90 kt,
but may have missed some higher winds.
Additional fluctuations in intensity are expected over the next
several days as Dora continues a generally westward track along
27/28 C water, in a negligible wind shear environment. Satellite
data
shows significantly drier air several hundred miles north of Dora,
which if it is ingested into Dora. A slightly more defined
weakening trend is expected as some of that drier air is ingested
into Dora in a couple days. The intensity forecast continues to
follow the last few advisory packages for the first 36 hours, and
remains a little higher than the model consensus. Starting with 48
hours, the forecast intensity has been lowered a bit to keep it in
line with the overall pattern of the intensity models. As the
system moves into a more unfavorable shear environment beyond day
4, additional weakening is likely.
Very little change in the track forecast as models continue to be
very tightly clustered through the week. Dora will move to the west
along the southern edge of the ridge to the north, passing well
south of Hawaii over the next several days.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 07/0300Z 12.7N 144.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
12H 07/1200Z 12.5N 147.0W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.8W 110 KT 125 MPH
36H 08/1200Z 12.2N 154.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
48H 09/0000Z 12.2N 158.4W 95 KT 110 MPH
60H 09/1200Z 12.4N 162.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
72H 10/0000Z 12.9N 165.6W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 11/0000Z 13.9N 173.1W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 12/0000Z 16.1N 179.7W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Wroe/M Ballard
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