430
AXPZ20 KNHC 210850
TWDEP
Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1005 UTC Tue May 21 2024
Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from
03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and
from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following
information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations,
radar, and meteorological analysis.
Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through
0830 UTC.
...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...
The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Costa Rica near
11N86W to 1008 mb low pres near 10N108W to 08N122W. The ITCZ
extends from 08N122W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection
is noted S of 10N between 92W-103W and from 07N-15N between
105W-116W.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...
Strong high pressure continues to stretch across the NE Pacific
southeastward to near 20N116W. The ridge is supporting moderate
to fresh NW to N winds over the waters W of Baja California, and
light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lucas and the
Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in NW swell north of
Cabo San Lazaro, and 6 to 7 ft in a mix of NW and SW swell south
of Cabo San Lazaro. Fresh to strong winds are noted near Punta
Eugenia, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of
California, light to gentle winds prevail, with 3 to 4 ft seas at
the entrance of the Gulf and 2 ft or less elsewhere. Seas of 5
to 7 ft in SW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican
offshore waters. Smoke from regional agricultural fires has
spread across the offshore waters over southern Mexico which
could reduce visibilities.
For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate
the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the
week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds W of the Baja California
peninsula will continue through Sat night. NW swell moving
across the Baja California offshore waters will persist through
Thu. Seas of 8 to 10 ft N of Punta Eugenia will continue through
Wed, then subsiding below 8 ft on Fri. Light concentrations of
smoke due to agricultural fires is expected to maintain hazy
skies and may reduce visibility over portions of southern Mexico
through today.
...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA,
AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...
Numerous strong convection continue to impact the offshore
waters from Costa Rica to Colombia, N of 02N and E of 86W. These
storms are bringing frequent lightning strikes and likely gusty
winds and locally rough seas. Exercise caution in this area.
South of monsoon trough around 07N, moderate to fresh winds are
noted, including the South American offshore waters. North of
07N, light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft
across the Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters due to
long period SW swell. Otherwise, seas range 5 to 7 ft across the
rest of the offshore waters. Smoke from agricultural fires across
the region from Mexico may be impacting areas as far as northern
Costa Rica.
For the forecast, moderate to strong thunderstorms will keep
impacting waters from Costa Rica to Colombia through Wed. For
waters south of 07N, winds will be moderate to fresh through
Fri. North of 07N, light to gentle winds will prevail. Long
period SW swell will continue to bring seas of 6 to 8 ft in the
Ecuador and Galapagos Islands offshore waters through today.
Seas of 5 to 7 ft will persist elsewhere through the rest of the
week. By the weekend, winds across the rest of the area will be
light to gentle.
...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...
High pressure of 1036 mb, located N of the forecast area near
38N142W, extends a ridge across the waters N of 15N and W of
115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure
along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds
N of 06N and W of 115W. Strong winds are pulsing along 11N and W
of 138W. Seas are in the 7 to 9 ft range within these winds in
NW to N swell. Elsewhere south of 06N, gentle to moderate winds
and seas of 6 to 8 ft in merging N and SW swell prevail W of
110W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Seas
are 6 to 8 ft in mixed SW and SE swell.
For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the
weather pattern across the area N of 15N and W of 115W through
the week. This will maintain mostly moderate to fresh trade winds
and moderate to rough seas along the southern periphery of the
ridge, and mainly W of 130W. Strong winds will continue through
today mainly W of 138W. Cross equatorial SW swell will continue
to combine with northerly swell to dominate area waters through
Wed before subsiding. Seas of 8 to 9 ft across the trade wind
zone will begin to slowly subside by Wed, and subside below 8 ft
by Fri.
$$
ERA
