529 
AXNT20 KNHC 040607
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0605 UTC Tue Jun 4 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
0500 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: 
A persistent upper-level trough over the western Caribbean will
sustain a diffluent pattern aloft across the area through Friday.
This will support the generation of strong thunderstorms capable
of producing dangerous lightning, heavy rain, and gusty winds
through Friday. Heavy rain can lead to flash flooding and
mudslides, especially in areas of Hispaniola where the ground
remains saturated from recent heavy rain events. According to the
most recent models, Tue afternoon and Thu afternoon will be the
days with the most significant precipitation over north-central
Dominican Republic and northeast Haiti. There are also indications
that significant rainfall could occur over eastern Cuba and the
Cayman Islands where abundant moisture will remain in place.
Please refer to products from your local weather service for more
information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 23W from 11N 
southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection
is seen from 05N to 07N between 21W and 25W. 

A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 11N southward, 
and moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is near this
wave on the latest analysis.

Another Atlantic tropical wave is near 53W from 12N southward to
northern Venezuela, and moving west near 10 kt. No significant 
convection is near this wave on the latest analysis.

A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 71W from the Dominican
Republic southward, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered showers
and isolated thunderstorms are occurring over Hispaniola and near
the coast of northern Venezuela.

A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 85W from near the Island
of Youth in Cuba southward to Honduras and Nicaragua, and moving 
west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is found over 
Honduras and Nicaragua.

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W then continues 
westward to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N24W to 06N35W, then 
from 06N37W to 06N51W. Aside from the convection associated with 
the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present from 
03N to 08N between 24W and 31W, and from 05N to 09N between 40W 
and 50W.

The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is generating
scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near central Panama,
and northwestern Colombia.

...GULF OF MEXICO...

A surface trough is triggering isolated thunderstorms off St. 
Petersburg, FL. Otherwise, a surface ridge runs southwestward 
from the Florida Big Bend area to near Veracruz, Mexico. Moderate
to fresh ESE to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are present across
the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to
moderate SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas exist for the rest of the
Gulf, including the Florid Straits.

For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to dominate the
Gulf through the next several days. This pattern will support 
generally moderate to fresh SE winds in the western Gulf, fresh to
occasionally strong near the Yucatan Peninsula and in the
northwestern Gulf, and gentle to moderate in the eastern Gulf. By
Thu, the ridge will weaken, allowing for winds to diminish 
somewhat. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires over Central 
America and Mexico will continue for the next couple of days, 
reducing visibility to around 3 nm at times, mainly over the 
western half of the Gulf.

...CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please read the Special Features section above for information on
a heavy rainfall event. 

The southwestern end of a surface trough is triggering scattered
showers and isolated thunderstorms near Jamaica. Fresh SE winds 
and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the eastern basin, including the
Mona Passage. Moderate E to SE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are 
noted at the central basin and the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to 
moderate E to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas prevail for the rest of 
the basin, including the Windward Passage.

For the forecast, pressure gradient across the region will 
support fresh to strong trade winds across the east-central 
basin through early Tue, with seas to near 8 ft. A deep layered 
upper-level trough from the Western Atlantic to the southwestern 
basin will continue to support active thunderstorms across the 
north-central basin through Tue. As this feature moves east-
northeastward across the Atlantic, associated weather will shift 
across the northeastern Caribbean Tue evening through Thu. Fresh 
trade winds will return to southeast portions of the basin Thu 
evening through early Sat.

...ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic
across 31N42W to 26N51W, then continues westward as a stationary 
front to 24N69W. Patchy showers are occurring up to 50 nm along
either side of the cold front. Divergent flow aloft is supporting
scattered moderate convection near and south of the stationary
front from 19N to 26N between 57W and 71W, including the Turks and
Caicos Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical
Waves sections for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin.

Moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are evident
from 20N to 29N between 57W and 67W. Otherwise, gentle to moderate
NNE to SSE winds and 4 to 5 ft are found north of 20N between
25W30W and the Florida/Georgia coast. Near the Canary and Cabo 
Verde Islands, moderate to fresh NNE to NE winds and seas at 4 to 
6 ft are seen north of 15N between the Africa coast and 25W. For 
the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 19N/20N between 30W and the 
Lesser Antilles, Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft
seas exist. Light to gentle monsoonal and southerly winds with
seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail for the remainder of the
Atlantic Basin.

For the forecast W of 55W, the above mentioned stationary front 
will meander and weaken into a surface trough later tonight. A 
deep-layered upper trough across the western Atlantic and into 
the southwestern Caribbean will shift east-northeast across the 
region through Thu, and maintain active thunderstorms east of 74W
tonight that will shift east and northeast Tue through Thu. The 
interaction of the upper trough and the stationary front/surface 
trough is expected cause an elongated surface low pressure to form 
near 26N60W on Tue, and shift northeastward and out of the area 
on Wed. Fresh to strong SW winds are forecast ahead of this 
trough/low as it move across these waters. Weak high pressure will
begin to build across the basin Wed, then shift slowly east-
northeast Thu through Fri night. Lastly, a weak front may exit 
the Georgia/northeastern Florida coast on Sat.

$$

Chan