000
AXNT20 KNHC 012101
TWDAT

Tropical Weather Discussion
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
0005 UTC Sun Jun 2 2024

Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America
Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South
America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the
Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite
imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis.

Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 
2100 UTC.

...SPECIAL FEATURES...

Heavy Rainfall in Hispaniola, Jamaica, and Eastern Cuba: Active
tropical waves and a persistent upper level trough continue to 
enhance atmospheric moisture content across the northern, 
central, and western Caribbean. Heavy rains are possible through 
next week, with the greatest risk for large accumulations from 
Tuesday through Friday. Localized flooding is possible, especially
in areas of Hispaniola where the ground remains saturated from 
recent heavy rain events. Please refer to products from your local
hydro-meteorological service for more information.

...TROPICAL WAVES...

The axis of a tropical wave is near 40W from 12N southward, 
moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted 
from 04N to 11N between 36W and 41W.

The axis of a tropical wave is near 56W from 13N southward, 
moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N 
to 11N between 52W and 55W. 

The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W from 18N southward, 
moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong 
convection is from 11N to 18N between 77W and 81W. 

...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ...

The monsoon trough extends from the coastal border of Guinea- 
Bissau and Senegal near 12N16W to 06N20W. The ITCZ continues from
06N20W to 06N27W and from 05N42W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate 
convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 30W and 50W.

GULF OF MEXICO...

Scattered moderate convection is north of 27N between 84W and 94W
in the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds are across most of the 
basin with 3-5 ft seas.  

For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters through 
at least Sun, supporting generally moderate to fresh SE winds, 
except for locally strong winds pulsing near the northern and 
western portions of the Yucatan peninsula during the late 
afternoons and at night. Hazy conditions due to agricultural fires
over Central America and Mexico will continue for at least the 
next couple of days reducing visibility at times. Winds E of 90W 
will diminish to mainly light to gentle speeds on Mon morning and 
prevail through Thu night.

CARIBBEAN SEA...

Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a
HEAVY RAIN EVENT. 

Fresh to strong trades,and 6-8 ft seas, prevail in the south
central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades, and seas of 5-7 ft, 
are noted elsewhere.

For the forecast, the pressure gradient will increase today as 
high pressure N of the area strengthens some. This will lead to 
fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean through 
early Mon, with seas building to around 9 ft. Fresh to strong 
winds are also expected over portions of the western basin just 
over southern Jamaica adjacent waters as a tropical wave moves 
across the region through Sun afternoon. The wave is also 
supporting scattered showers and tstms between the Windward 
Passage and the coast of Nicaragua, which are forecast to continue
and amplify the next couple of days.

ATLANTIC OCEAN...

A cold front extends from 31N67W SW to the central Bahamas.  
Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 240 nm
se of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are
found W of the front. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of 20N,
anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 32N43W. Gentle to
moderate winds prevail elsewhere, with seas in the 3-6 ft range. 

For the forecast W of 55W, the front is forecast to become nearly
stationary along 25N by early Sun and weaken into a surface 
trough by Mon evening. Energy associated with a convectively 
active tropical wave, currently over the W Caribbean will lift NNE
and merge with this trough by Tue. Afterwards, the trough will 
drift eastward and move to the central subtropical Atlantic waters
Thu into Fri. Fresh SW winds are forecast ahead of this trough as
it crosses the northern offshore waters. 

$$
AL